Objective To explore the influencing factors for pneumothorax recurrence after routine treatment in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax, and to construct and validate a nomogram model for predicting pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment. Methods The general demographic data, disease-related data, and laboratory examination data of 320 patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax were retrospectively analyzed. According to the occurrence of pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment, the study subjects were divided into a recurrence group (n=133) or a non-recurrence group (n=187). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors for pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the results of multivariate analysis, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a calibration curve were drawn to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model. Results Results of the univariate analysis showed that the proportions of smokers, people with dust-exposed working years >15 years, people with stage Ⅲpneumoconiosis, people who were not treated for the first time, and people with a maximum pulmonary bulla diameter >3 cm, as well as the C-reactive protein (CRP) level, were all higher in the recurrence group than in the non-recurrence group (all P<0.05). Results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that smoking, stage Ⅲ pneumoconiosis, non-first-time treatment, a maximum pulmonary bulla diameter >3 cm, and a high CRP level were risk factors for pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax (all P<0.05 and OR>1). A nomogram model for predicting pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax was constructed based on the above influencing factors, whose area under the ROC curve and Brier score were 0.967 and 0.021, respectively. Conclusion The smoking status, pneumoconiosis stage, first-time treatment or not, maximum pulmonary bulla diameter, and CRP level are influencing factors for pneumothorax recurrence within 1 year after routine treatment in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated with spontaneous pneumothorax. The nomogram model constructed based on the above influencing factors can accurately predict the recurrence of patients.

• ref