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沿海地区青年人群高尿酸血症的流行病学调查及列线图预测模型的构建
Epidemiological investigation of hyperuricemia in young people in coastal areas and construction of a nomogram prediction model

内科 202419卷06期 页码:594-600

作者机构:广西钦州市第一人民医院风湿免疫科,钦州市 535000

DOI:10.16121/j.cnki.cn45⁃1347/r.2024.06.04

  • 中文简介
  • 英文简介
  • 参考文献

目的 对沿海地区青年人群高尿酸血症(HUA)的发病率进行流行病学调查,构建该人群发生HUA的列线图预测模型。方法 选取2019年2月至2022年2月于广西钦州市第一人民医院接受体检的13 647例青年人为研究对象,收集其临床资料并对其进行为期1年的随访,根据1年后再次体检时HUA的发病情况计算该人群的HUA发病率并对其分组(HUA组、非HUA组)。比较两组的临床资料,采用多因素logistic回归模型分析沿海地区青年人群发生HUA的影响因素,并构建该人群发生HUA的列线图预测模型。应用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型的预测效能。结果 13 647例青年体检者中,有3 169例诊断出HUA,整体HUA发病率为23.22%。两组性别、糖尿病患病情况、高血压患病情况、饮酒史、食肉情况、身体质量指数(BMI)、收缩压、舒张压、三酰甘油、糖化血红蛋白、血肌酐、丙氨酸转氨酶、天冬氨酸转氨酶和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05);多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,性别、高血压患病情况、饮酒史、食肉情况、BMI、三酰甘油、血肌酐、HDL-C均是沿海地区青年人群发生HUA的影响因素(均P<0.05)。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示基于上述影响因素构建的列线图模型的预测结果与实际观测结果拟合较好,模型预测沿海地区青年人群发生HUA的ROC曲线下面积为0.891(95%CI:0.837~0.946),DCA曲线显示模型预测HUA的净获益率较高。结论 沿海地区青年人群HUA发病率较高,性别、高血压患病情况、饮酒史、食肉情况、BMI、三酰甘油、血肌酐、HDL-C是沿海地区青年人群发生HUA的影响因素,基于上述影响因素构建的列线图模型可有效地预测该人群HUA的发生,且具有良好的临床应用价值。

Objective To perform an epidemiological investigation on the incidence of hyperuricemia (HUA) in young people in coastal areas, and to construct a nomogram prediction model for the occurrence of HUA in this population. Methods A total of 13,647 young people undergoing physical examination in the First People's Hospital of Qinzhou, Guangxi, from February 2019 to February 2022 were selected as the study subjects, their clinical data were collected and they were followed up for a year, and the HUA incidence in this population was calculated, and the study subjects were divided into an HUA group or a non-HUA group according to the occurrence of HUA in the physical examination 1 year later. The clinical data of the two groups were compared, the multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for HUA in young people in coastal areas, and a nomogram prediction model for HUA in this population was constructed. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model's predictive performance. Results Among the 13,647 young people undergoing physical examination, 3,169 were diagnosed with HUA, which made an overall HUA incidence of 23.22%. There were statistically significant differences in gender, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, prevalence of hypertension, alcohol consumption history, meat consumption, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triacylglycerol, glycosylated hemoglobin, serum creatinine, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) between the two groups (all P<0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, prevalence of hypertension, alcohol consumption history, meat consumption, BMI, TG, serum Cr, and HDL-C were influencing factors for HUA in young people in coastal areas (all P<0.05). The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the prediction results of the nomogram model constructed on the basis of the abovementioned influencing factors fitted well with the actual observations, the area under the ROC curve of the model for predicting the occurrence of HUA in young people in coastal areas was 0.891 (95%CI: 0.837-0.946), and the DCA curve showed a quite high net benefit of the model for predicting HUA. Conclusion The incidence of HUA in young people in coastal areas is quite high, and gender, prevalence of hypertension, alcohol consumption history, meat consumption, BMI, triacylglycerol, serum creatinine, and HDL-C are the influencing factors for HUA in young people in coastal areas. Constructed on the basis of the abovementioned influencing factors, the nomogram model can effectively predict the occurrence of HUA in this population, with good clinical utility. 

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