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中青年2型糖尿病患者并发糖尿病视网膜病变的列线图预测模型构建:一项横断面研究
Construction of a nomogram prediction model for diabetic retinopathy in young and middle-aged patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study

内科 页码:504-512

作者机构:1承德医学院研究生学院,河北省承德市 067000;2 承德市中心医院内分泌风湿免疫科,河北省承德市 067000

DOI:10.16121/j.cnki.cn45-1347/r.2025.05.08

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  • 英文简介
  • 参考文献

目的 探讨中青年2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者并发糖尿病视网膜病变(DR)的相关因素,构建列线图预测模型并评价其效能。方法 收集537例中青年T2DM患者的临床资料,根据是否并发DR分为DR组(n=217)和非DR组(n=320)。比较两组患者的临床资料,应用多因素logistic回归模型分析中青年T2DM患者并发DR的影响因素,并构建列线图预测模型。绘制受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评价模型的预测效能。结果 T2DM病程、糖尿病家族史、尿白蛋白与肌酐比值、糖尿病周围神经病变、身体质量指数、皮下脂肪面积、空腹C肽、胱抑素C、淋巴细胞与单核细胞比值是中青年T2DM患者并发DR的独立相关因素。基于上述相关因素构建的列线图预测模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.766(95%CI:0.726~0.806),敏感度为77.9%,特异度为64.1%,最大Youden指数为0.419。结论 T2DM病程、糖尿病家族史、尿白蛋白与肌酐比值、糖尿病周围神经病变、身体质量指数、皮下脂肪面积、空腹C肽、胱抑素C、淋巴细胞与单核细胞比值是中青年T2DM患者并发DR的独立相关因素。基于上述相关因素构建的列线图模型具有良好的预测效能。

Objective To explore the related factors of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in young and middle-aged patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), construct a nomogram prediction model, and evaluate its efficacy. Methods The clinical data of 537 young and middle-aged T2DM patients were collected. The patients were divided into the DR group (n=217) or the non-DR group (n=320) according to the presence or absence of DR. The clinical data of the two groups were compared. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of DR in young and middle-aged T2DM patients, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model. Results The duration of T2DM, family history of diabetes, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, body mass index, subcutaneous fat area, fasting C-peptide, cystatin C, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio were independent related factors for DR in young and middle-aged T2DM patients. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram prediction model constructed based on the above related factors was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.726-0.806), with a sensitivity of 77.9%, a specificity of 64.1%, and a maximum Youden index of 0.419. Conclusion The duration of T2DM, family history of diabetes, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, body mass index, subcutaneous fat area, fasting C-peptide, cystatin C, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio are independent related factors for DR in young and middle-aged T2DM patients. The nomogram model constructed based on the above related factors demonstrates acceptable predictive efficacy.

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