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冠状动脉造影/经皮冠状动脉介入治疗术后并发对比剂脑病的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建▲
Risk factor analysis and nomogram prediction model construction for contrast-induced encephalopathy after coronary angiography/percutaneous coronary intervention

内科 页码:635-640

作者机构:1广西贺州市中医医院心血管内科,贺州市 542800;2广西贺州市人民医院心脏重症监护室,贺州市 542800;3广西贺州市人民医院神经内科,贺州市 542800;4广西贺州市人民医院心血管内科,贺州市 542800

基金信息:广西贺州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目(贺科技202255)

DOI:10.16121/j.cnki.cn45-1347/r.2025.06.05

  • 中文简介
  • 英文简介
  • 参考文献

目的 探讨冠状动脉造影(CAG)/经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后并发对比剂脑病(CIE)的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法 选取2022年1月至2024年5月贺州市人民医院与贺州市中医医院收治的CAG/PCI术后并发CIE的36例患者作为CIE组,采用倾向性评分匹配法(1∶3)从同期术后未并发CIE的患者中匹配108例作为非CIE组。回顾性分析两组患者的临床资料,通过单因素分析及多因素logistic回归分析筛选独立危险因素,并基于此构建列线图预测模型,绘制受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型的预测效能。结果 单因素分析显示,两组在年龄、性别、高血压史、急性脑梗死史及对比剂使用剂量方面的差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,男性(OR=4.801,95%CI:1.160~19.861)、有急性脑梗死史(OR=7.696,95%CI:1.300~45.572)、对比剂使用剂量大(OR=1.461,95%CI:1.252~1.704)均是CAG/PCI术后并发CIE的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。基于上述独立危险因素构建的列线图模型,其预测CAG/PCI术后并发CIE的ROC曲线下面积为0.888(95%CI:0.812~0.963),灵敏度为84.2%,特异度为75.0%,最大约登指数为0.592。结论 男性、有急性脑梗死史及对比剂使用剂量大是CAG/PCI术后并发CIE的独立危险因素。本研究构建的列线图模型具有良好的区分能力,对临床早期识别高危患者具有参考价值。

Objective To investigate the risk factors for contrast-induced encephalopathy (CIE) after coronary angiography (CAG)/percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods Thirty-six patients who developed CIE after CAG/PCI at Hezhou People's Hospital and Hezhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2022 to May 2024 were selected as the CIE group; and using propensity score matching method (1∶3), 108 patients who did not develop CIE after the same surgery during the same period were matched as the non-CIE group. Clinical data of both groups were retrospectively analyzed; independent risk factors were screened through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, based on which a nomogram prediction model was constructed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Results Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences between the two groups in age, sex, history of hypertension, history of acute cerebral infarction, and contrast dose (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that male (OR=4.801, 95% CI: 1.160-19.861), history of acute cerebral infarction (OR=7.696, 95% CI: 1.300-45.572), and high contrast dose (OR=1.461, 95% CI: 1.252-1.704) were independent risk factors for CIE after CAG/PCI (all P<0.05). The nomogram model constructed based on the above independent risk factors had an area under the ROC curve of 0.888 (95% CI: 0.812-0.963) for predicting CIE after CAG/PCI, with a sensitivity of 84.2%, a specificity of 75.0%, and a maximum Youden index of 0.592. Conclusion Male, history of acute cerebral infarction, and high contrast dose are independent risk factors for CIE after CAG/PCI. The nomogram model constructed in this study demonstrates good discriminative ability and holds reference value for the early clinical identification of high-risk patients.

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